A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
